Japan sends an elite unit formed by 14 runners, including five Group 1 winners, to Hong Kong for the 2023 LONGINES Hong Kong International Races (HKIR) at Sha Tin on 10 December.

While I am pretty sure this is the strongest team ever sent from the Land of the Rising Sun for HKIR, the team from Europe and Hong Kong’s representation looks to be very strong this year and I am convinced all four Group 1 races should be tough battles. I will be happy if Japan manages to win two of them to be frank.

In my opinion, the best hope for Japan is Prognosis in G1 LONGINES Hong Kong Cup (2000m). The son of Deep Impact was runner-up to Romantic Warrior in the G1 FWD QEII Cup (2000m) at Sha Tin in April. After returning from Hong Kong, the five-year-old runner won the G2 Sapporo Kinen (2000m) at Sapporo by four lengths in August and finished third to great Equinox in the G1 Tenno Sho Autumn (2000m) at Tokyo on 29 October. He has now consolidated his position as one of the best mile-and-a-quarter runners in Japan and has also proved he can handle Sha Tin very well. I believe he can turn the tables and snatch glory, running against quality field of the LONGINES Hong Kong Cup, which includes Romantic Warrior on Sunday, 10 December.

Rousham Park, who won last three races in a row, is one of Japan’s rising stars and has the potential to be “one of the best mile-and-a-quarter runners” in the near future. I believe he can handle the track at Sha Tin well, as he is by Harbinger, who sired Normcore, winner of LONGINES Hong Kong Cup in 2020, and I will not be surprised if he finishes within first three.

I am afraid Hishi Iguazu, who finished second in this race two years ago, might have already lost his form.

Meanwhile, I reckon Shahryar, winner of the G1 Tokyo Yushun (2400m) in 2021 and the G1 Dubai Sheema Classic (2410m) in 2022, has a good chance to win the G1 LONGINES Hong Kong Vase (2400m), although Warm Heart from Ireland looks to be a strong opponent. Most recently, Shahryar finished third to Auguste Rodin, who is arguably the best mile-and-a-half horse in Europe, in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Turf (2400m) in November, and flew from California to Hong Kong direct after the Breeders’ Cup. It is the same route as Loves Only You in 2021 and I believe the knowledge and skills about on how to make a successful trip from California to Hong Kong may have been passed on from the connections of Loves Only You to the connections of Shahryar, although they are trained by different trainers.

Noteworthy runners also include Geraldina, who is by Maurice, who won three Group 1s at Sha Tin. Lebensstill, by Real Steel who is a full brother to Loves Only You, winner of the G1 FWD QEII Cup and the LONGINES Hong Kong Cup in 2021, plus Zeffiro is from same family as the previously-mentioned Loves Only You.

Therefore, those three Japanese runners in the LONGINES Hong Kong Vase should have inherited great aptitude to handle Sha Tin Racecourse well from their pedigree and could display their best performance at Sha Tin on 10 December.  I believe all of them have chance to hit a board.

While Japan has five runners in the LONGINES Hong Kong Mile, which includes Namur, the new queen of Japan’s mile division who looks gorgeous, Hong Kong representatives look too strong to beat.