In the 14th and final instalment of The Hong Kong Jockey Club’s Road to the Derby series, we run the rule over the importance of having a high rating and a good barrier in the city’s most prestigious race, as well as having a look into the breeding of some of the contenders.

One of the biggest talking points of any Derby is the barrier draw and Thursday’s (19 March) allocation set plenty of tongues wagging after a number of key hopes drew wide for the 149th HK$26 million BMW Hong Kong Derby (2000m) at Sha Tin this Sunday (22 March).

HK$13 million Hong Kong Classic Mile (1600m) conqueror Little Paradise was lumped with barrier 10, a gate that would have no doubt left connections smarting.

The data should give them a small boost with four winners since 2000, including Massive Sovereign in 2024, saluting from the alley.

Numbers drew barrier 13 and Beauty Bolt 11, while David Eustace was the hardest-hit trainer with his two runners – Seraph Gabriel and Dazzling Fit – lumped with alleys 12 and 14, respectively.

History shows it’s far from impossible to prevail from the outside gate of 14, however, with three gallopers doing it in the past 15 years, including Voyage Bubble in 2023.

Sagacious Life (gate two), Invincible Ibis (three) and HK$13 million Hong Kong Classic Cup (1800m) hero Stormy Grove (seven) were among those to draw well, while Top Dragon (one) and Juneau Pride (five) also drew low but will be looking to become the first horses to salute from their gates this century.

From a ratings perspective, there was a time when punters could have some confidence gravitating towards the horses with lower saddle cloth numbers – and therefore a higher rating – with gallopers sporting numbers one, two or three winning 12 consecutive Derbies from 2011 to 2022.

Voyage Bubble’s victory as a 93-rated galloper wearing number four snapped that run, with Ricky Yiu’s superstar becoming the first horse since Keen Winner in 2000 to win the Derby on a mark lower than 100.

Something of a trend has developed in the past two years, with Massive Sovereign saluting in the number seven with a rating of 82 and Cap Ferrat prevailing last year in number nine on a mark of 83, something that likely ties in with the fact proven imports no longer come into Hong Kong on the lofty marks they once did.

So while from 2001 to 2022 you could have felt safe backing either the 103-rated Little Paradise or Numbers on a mark of 100, the past three years suggest a triple-figure rating is no longer a prerequisite to Derby success.

Staying on the betting front briefly and the Derby hasn’t been as much of a favourites race in recent years, with Cap Ferrat (25/1) and Voyage Bubble (45/1) both delivering at long odds and no market leader winning since Golden Sixty in 2020.

Before Voyage Bubble’s blowout success, no horse in double figures had triumphed for 15 years, with eight favourites getting up in that time.

From a breeding perspective, the three horses in the field who have already run at 1950m or above – Numbers (Tivaci-Sheezababe), Sagacious Life (Put It Back-Quatro Islas) and Seraph Gabriel (Saxon Warrior-Archangel Gabriel) – are also the ones who look to be best bred to thrive this weekend, with all three boasting siblings who have tasted success at 1950m or further.