He has finished second to local champion Romantic Warrior for the last two years but with Hong Kong’s middle-distance star an absentee from the HK$28 million G1 FWD QEII Cup (2000m) at Sha Tin on Sunday (27 April), Japanese star Prognosis could finally be set for his crowning moment.

The Mitsumasa Nakauchida-trained seven-year-old has yet to strike at Group 1 level but has performed commendably in some of the world's best races, with placed efforts behind giants such as Equinox and Via Sistina scattering his race record.

A dual winner of the G2 Kinko Sho (2000m) in 2023 and 2024, Prognosis comes into this year’s FWD QEII Cup having finished sixth in the Chukyo contest to his stablemate Queen’s Walk. On his previous start he finished 11th to Regaleira in the G1 Arima Kinen (2500m).

“Prognosis has gotten used to traveling to Hong Kong,” Nakauchida said after trackwork at Sha Tin on Saturday morning (26 April). “He’s become more comfortable with changes in environment, so his training has been going smoothly without any issues.

“In the Arima Kinen, the distance was too long for him. In the Kinko Sho, the race development didn’t work in his favour. We chose this race because both the distance and timing suit him best, and we believe this is when he can perform at his peak.”

Further intrigue is built into his chance with the booking of Romantic Warrior’s regular partner James McDonald. The pair will break from stall six.

Nakauchida has an excellent chance of giving Japan a seventh success in the race since 1995 as he also saddles the 2023 Triple Tiara winner Liberty Island.

On her last visit to Sha Tin in December, she pushed Romantic Warrior to a length and a half in the HK$40 million G1 LONGINES Hong Kong Cup (2000m) and the trainer expects the return to the same course and distance to bring out an improved performance after her eighth-place finish in the G1 Dubai Turf (1800m) this month.

“The race didn’t bring out the horse’s true strengths as much as we had hoped,” Nakauchida said. “It may have been due in part to it being her first race after a break. We expect this run to help bring her condition up.

“She races better at 2000 metres. Her condition has improved after that last race, so the interval between races is ideal.”

Unlike Prognosis, Liberty Island’s chances have been complicated by the draw. She will break widest from stall 11 and, with no horse succeeding from that post in the last 28 runnings, Nakauchida will consult her big-race rider Yuga Kawada to form a plan.

He said: “We’ll discuss with the jockey from here on, taking into account the track condition on race day.”

The HK$28 million G1 FWD QEII Cup (2000m) forms part of a brilliant programme at Sha Tin on Sunday, with the HK$22 million G1 Chairman’s Sprint Prize (1200m) and HK$24 million G1 FWD Champions Mile (1600m) also featuring on the 10-race card. Racing begins at 12.45pm.