Japan sends an elite unit formed by eight runners for FWD Hong Kong Champions Day at Sha Tin on 28 April. Though the team is smaller than Saudi Cup night in February, where 22 Japanese runners competed in six races, and Dubai World Cup night in March, where 22 Japanese runners competed in seven races, I understand the Japanese team at FWD Champions Day is still “big”, as I consider that high season of racing has now started in Japan. FWD Champions Day is a very attractive event from the view point of prestige and prize money, and owners and trainers in Japan are very keen to take part in it.

Flag bearer of Japanese team is Shadai Race Horse’s Prognosis, one of three Japanese representatives in the G1 FWD QEII Cup, which carries total purse of HK$28 million.

I understand this is a familiar name for horse racing fans in Hong Kong, as this is the third trip to Hong Kong for the six-year-old horse by Deep Impact. Prognosis ran bravely and finished second to the great Romantic Warrior in the FWD QEII Cup twelve months ago, while he was a disappointing fifth in the G1 Hong Kong Cup in last December.

I analyse we can find the cause of his poor performance in December in his previous start, the G1 Tenno Sho Autumn, won by Equinox, establishing new track record at 2000 metres at Tokyo Racecourse. Prognosis, who finished third to Equinox, completed the whole distance in 1m 55.8s, which was faster than the previous track record. This ultra-tough race might have cost him and his condition was not well enough to compete against a quality field in the Hong Kong Cup in December.

Prognosis had an easy time at Yamamoto Training Center, a private facility at Sendai owned by Shadai Farm after the Hong Kong Cup, and returned at barn of Mitsu Nakauchida in JRA’s Ritto Training Center on 10 February to resume full training.  

His first start of 2024 was in the G2 Kinko Sho on 10 March and Prognosis won the 2000m event at Chukyo by five lengths. In fact, Prognosis had won G2 Kinko Sho in prior to finishing second in the FWD QEII Cup in 2023, though, his performance in the Kinko Sho in 2024 was much more impressive than the same race in 2023.  

While the Kinko Sho is one of the important prep races for G1 Osaka Hai at Hanshin on 31 March, although, the connections of Prognosis decided to skip Osaka Hai, in order to save him for the FWD QEII Cup.

I respect Romantic Warrior, however, I recognise Prognosis as a horse who is a possible to defeat the great champion.

Hishi Iguazu and North Bridge are other members of Japanese team for the FWD QEII Cup.

This is the third trip to Hong Kong for Hishi Iguazu as well and it is obvious that Sha Tin is his favorite track, as he finished second in the Hong Kong Cup in 2021 and third in the same race in 2023. I believe the veteran soldier has a good chance to hit the board in the FWD QEII Cup.

North Bridge made a tremendous effort in Qatar in February, when he finished fourth in G3 Amir Trophy, in which Russian Emperor finished fifth, and it proves that he can adopt to new surroundings easily. And he is by Maurice, who won three G1s in Hong Kong. I would like to suggest punters not to ignore North Bridge in the feature race at Sha Tin on 28 April.